As chip manufacturing processes continue to move towards 7nm, 5nm and even finer 3nm, wafer foundries are actively applying advanced packaging technologies to further improve product performance, optimize cost structure, and accelerate product time to market. Advanced packaging technology is leading the iterative upgrade of packaging technology, and its market share is gradually increasing. It is expected to gradually surpass traditional packaging technology and become a new trend in industry development. What are the highlights of advanced packaging in 2024?

01 HPC and AI bring new development opportunities

Advanced packaging and traditional packaging technology are distinguished by whether they are bonded wires. Advanced packaging includes non-wire bonding forms such as flip chip, bumping, wafer level package, 2.5D packaging and 3D packaging. The functions of traditional packaging mainly include three functions: chip protection, scale amplification, and electrical connection. On this basis, advanced packaging adds three new functions: improving functional density, shortening interconnection length, and performing system reconstruction.

Driven by HPC (high performance computing) and AI technology, advanced packaging technology has ushered in unprecedented development opportunities. As AI technology continues to advance, many application scenarios and chips have put forward more stringent requirements for features such as high computing power, high bandwidth, low latency, low power consumption, larger memory and system integration. In this context, advanced packaging technology plays a vital role.

Data shows that in 2023, the total capacity of HBM (high-bandwidth memory) installed on the main AI acceleration chips on the market will reach 290 million GB, with a growth rate of nearly 60%. The growth rate in 2024 will exceed 30%. At the same time, as demand for high-end AI chips increases, advanced packaging production capacity is expected to grow by 30% to 40% in 2024. YOLE data shows that the global advanced packaging market is expected to continue to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% from 2022 to 2028. The global advanced packaging market is expected to grow from US$42.9 billion in 2022 to US$78.6 billion in 2028.

In terms of different packaging technologies, FCBGA, FCCSP and 2.5D/3D packaging technologies will become the mainstream of the market in 2024. 2.5D/3D packaging technology has the fastest growth rate. YOLE expects its market size to jump significantly from US$9.4 billion in 2022 to US$22.5 billion in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of as high as 15.6%.

02 Chiplets and 3D packaging attract much attention

As high-performance computing is booming, chiplets, one of the advanced packaging technologies, have attracted much attention in the industry.

Xu Dongmei, deputy secretary-general of the China Semiconductor Industry Association and secretary-general of the packaging and testing branch, pointed out that since the AI and HPC fields need to process large-scale data and complex calculations, the requirements for chip design scale are extremely high, so the demand for chiplet technology in these two fields is greater. For urgency. As AI applications continue to develop, the demand for chips behind them is also becoming increasingly strong, demonstrating the huge potential and growth space of the chiplet market. Data shows that the global market size of chiplets will reach US$5.8 billion by 2024 and US$57 billion by 2035.

At the same time, as the demand for computing power continues to increase, 3D packaging technology will also usher in a "qualifying competition" in 2024. It is reported that 3D packaging technology stacks multiple chips or devices vertically, thereby significantly increasing the level of integration, shortening the interconnection length, and further improving overall performance. The global advanced chip packaging market is expected to grow from US$44.3 billion in 2022 to US$66 billion in 2027, and 3D packaging is expected to account for about a quarter.

In 2024, companies such as TSMC, Intel and Samsung Electronics will increase investment in promoting the research, development and application of 3D packaging technology. TSMC's SoIC technology, as the industry's first high-density 3D Chiplet stacking technology, has been commercialized and has been widely recognized by the market. It is understood that TSMC will expand the monthly production capacity of SoIC technology from the previous 1,900 pieces to more than 3,000 pieces in 2024, an increase of nearly 60%.

In addition to TSMC, Intel and Samsung Electronics' 3D packaging technology will also achieve mass production in 2024. In January 2024, Intel announced that its first 3D packaging technology, Foveros, had achieved mass production. At the same time, Samsung is also actively developing its 3D packaging technology X-Cube and said it will be mass-produced in 2024. The latest 3D packaging technology SAINT developed for AI chips is also getting closer, and there is news that SAINT will also be mass-produced in 2024.

03 Chinese semiconductor companies accelerate their layout

In 2024, Chinese semiconductor companies will also increase their presence in the advanced packaging field. Liu Geng, secretary of the board of directors of Xiamen Yuntian Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd., told China Electronics News that in addition to traditional packaging, domestic packaging companies are also laying out wafer-level packaging, including fan-out wafer-level packaging and flip-chip packaging.

Zheng Li, CEO of Changdian Technology, said that with the continuous popularization of the concept of green and sustainable development, wide bandgap semiconductors have also shown huge market growth potential. To ensure the stable and reliable performance of wide bandgap semiconductor devices, advanced packaging technology is indispensable. Taking 5G radio frequency technology as an example, in order to achieve the high bandwidth, high speed and low delay characteristics of 5G, the industry has widely used wide bandgap semiconductor devices such as gallium nitride, silicon carbide, and silicon-based gallium nitride in 5G radio frequency technology. This also means that more advanced packaging technology is needed to integrate wide-bandgap semiconductor components with different physical properties and achieve high-speed, low-latency transmission of signals to maximize the energy efficiency of wide-bandgap semiconductors. "Although the technology is very difficult, it is also a key part of improving the signal transmission efficiency of 5G and future 6G, Wi-Fi 6, Wi-Fi 7, etc.," Zheng Li said.

Tongfu Microelectronics has also made frequent efforts in the field of advanced packaging. It is reported that Tongfu Microelectronics has built a VISionS advanced packaging platform and a super-large-size FCBGA R&D platform that integrates advanced packaging technologies such as 2.5D, 3D, and MCM-Chiplet. It has cooperated with international companies such as AMD and STMicroelectronics in the field of advanced packaging.

Yuntian Semiconductor is developing glass-based products. Liu Geng said that while ensuring stable mass production and increasing production capacity of WLP (wafer level packaging), Yuntian Semiconductor's future focus will be on new glass-based products, 2D/3D glass-based IPDs for high-frequency filtering (Passive device integration) has begun mass production and can also be used in matching chips such as power amplifiers and power devices. At the same time, products such as glass-based fan-out and glass-based adapter boards have gradually entered the productization stage.

Compared with the international advanced level, China still lags behind in the field of advanced packaging. Data shows that advanced packaging will account for 49% of the global packaging market in 2023, and China will account for 39%, which is lower than the global level.

Xu Dongmei believes that at present, my country's packaging field is still dominated by traditional mid- to low-end packaging, and there is still a certain gap between the level of advanced packaging technology and the international advanced level. In terms of core unit technology, high-density wiring, chip flip-chip, wafer-level plastic packaging, etc., our country has not yet formed a complete technical system, and full-process development has not yet been completed. In addition, the key equipment and materials required for advanced packaging are not yet complete, and supply chain capabilities need to be improved. In order to make up for these shortcomings, our country needs to strengthen the research and development and innovation of advanced packaging technology and improve core technology and supply chain capabilities. This includes increasing investment in research and development of advanced packaging technology, strengthening cooperation and exchanges with international advanced enterprises, introducing and cultivating high-end talents, and promoting in-depth integration of industry, academia, and research. At the same time, policy support and capital investment should also be strengthened to provide a strong guarantee for the development of advanced packaging technology.

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