On March 28, Xiaomi officially released the SU7 smart electric car, and currently has 40,000 units on order. Xiaomi Auto's goal is to enter the first camp of the intelligent driving industry by 2024, which indicates that the pattern of the intelligent driving industry may change. In addition, the AI track continues to be hot, and the start-up Moonshot released the Kimi large model, leading the continuous evolution of AI applications. How to seize new market opportunities in March? Anxinyi market insight report helps you seize the opportunity!

Market trend

Macro trend: The global economy is expected to recover, and semiconductor sales in China increased by 28.8% year-on-year.

Terminal market: Xiaomi SU7 car orders have reached 40,000 units, with delivery periods of 29 to 32 weeks. Suppliers are required to increase production capacity to 10,000 units per month, focusing on Qualcomm Snapdragon 8295 chips, lidar, smart driving chips, Domain control and other market opportunities

Product Quotes: Cloud service manufacturers are in strong demand, and AI server GPU shipments are expected to double.

Industry trends: Samsung plans to increase the price of its NAND flash memory by 15%-20%, optimistic about the continued recovery of memory chip prices

01 Macro Environment Overview

0101 Economic Situation Tracking

The global economy is expected to recover, China's manufacturing boom is picking up, and new export orders are rising.

In March 24, according to JP Morgan data, the global manufacturing PMI was 50.6, which has entered the expansion range this year. JP Morgan believes that the global manufacturing industry may recover in 2024, which is expected to boost my country's exports.

Looking at it by region:

In Asia, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.8, returning above the boom-bust line for the first time since September 23. This was mainly driven by new export orders (51.3), which increased by 5.0pct month-on-month. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the new export order index in industries such as automobiles and computer communications electronic equipment is higher than the critical point. The foreign trade business of related industries has increased compared with the previous month, and production demand has been released rapidly. The high-tech manufacturing PMI was 53.9, and high-end manufacturing continued to grow. India's manufacturing PMI is as high as 59.1, mainly due to accelerated growth in both output and new orders. Japan's manufacturing PMI continued to be weak; South Korea's and Vietnam's manufacturing PMI fell below the boom-and-bust line, mainly due to a slight decline in production and new orders. Among them, although South Korea's export demand grew rapidly, its weak domestic demand offset the growth in overseas demand, and the overall manufacturing performance was weak.

In the Americas, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI reached 50.3, which was the first time since October 2022 that it has returned to the expansion range. Mexico's manufacturing PMI reached 52.2, basically the same as last month's 52.3, indicating solid growth in the manufacturing sector.

In Europe, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI continues to decline and is still in contraction territory.

02 Industry demand dynamics

The demand recovery in the global semiconductor market is clear, and China's growth performance is better

In February 2024, global semiconductor sales continued to show a month-on-month downward trend (-3.1%), but the year-on-year growth performance was better, reaching 16.4%. From January to February 2024, global semiconductor sales reached a cumulative US$93.8 billion, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 15.8%, indicating a significant recovery trend.

Looking at it by region:

In the Asia-Pacific region, sales in February reached US$29.7 billion (+17.6% year-on-year), with a market share of 64.3%; cumulative sales from January to February were US$60.28 billion (cumulative year-on-year +16.80%). Among them, sales in China reached US$14.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%, accounting for 30.60% of the global market share. Demand in Japan continued its downward trend, declining both month-on-month and year-on-year (-2.7%/-8.5%).

In the Americas, market demand continues to recover and grows rapidly (+22.0% year-on-year). This is mainly due to the high prosperity of Mexico's manufacturing industry, and major car companies have successively deployed production capacity in Mexico.

In Europe, market demand is relatively weak, sales decline has expanded year-on-year (-3.4%), and the overall economy is still on the edge of recession.

03 Capital market dynamics

The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond interest rate remains relatively high, and attention is paid to the exchange rate risks of import and export trade.

In March 2024, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond interest rate remained relatively high. As the U.S. employment data in March exceeded expectations, it is expected that the timing of the Fed's interest rate cut will be delayed, and it will continue to pay attention to the exchange rate risks of import and export trade.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index pulled back slightly, mainly due to the impact of overheating and cooling of the market.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) declined in March, mainly due to the recent overheating and cooling of the market. In the long term, the popularity of artificial intelligence is still expected to drive steady growth in the stock prices of technology stocks.

04 Industrial policy dynamics

The United States revise its chip restriction policy against China and expand it to the PC field

On March 29, the Biden administration in the United States revised the restrictions on Chinese chips. The restrictive rules will also apply to laptops containing AI chips, which means that the restrictions on U.S. chips against China have been expanded to a wider range of consumer electronics.

The United States will join forces with Mexico to explore new opportunities in the semiconductor supply chain

The U.S. State Department said the United States will work with Mexico to explore new opportunities in the semiconductor supply chain as the Biden administration pushes to reduce technology dependence on China and Taiwan. The partnership will begin by assessing Mexico's existing semiconductor industry, regulatory framework and workforce needs.

South Korea is vigorously developing the AI industry and accelerating the export of HBM and AI chips.

South Korea's Minister of Industry, Commerce, Industry and Energy Andegen said that the South Korean government will actively support the semiconductor industry and accelerate the development of HBM and AI chips to achieve an annual export target of US$120 billion. SK Hynix is currently seeking to build four manufacturing plants in South Korea by 2046 with a budget of 120 trillion won.

India cuts import tariffs on electric vehicles and is expected to accelerate the development of the electric vehicle industry

The Indian government has agreed to cut import duties on electric vehicles from multinational companies building factories in India. According to a statement from the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry, as long as companies commit to investing at least 41.5 billion rupees (approximately US$500 million) within three years and producing electric vehicles in local factories, they can obtain tax incentives. It is reported that electric vehicles priced above US$35,000 will enjoy a 15% import tax reduction for five years. At the same time, the company's total import quota for electric vehicles, which has committed to invest more than US$800 million, will reach 40,000 units, 8,000 units per year.

The EU plans to require customs registration of electric vehicles imported from China and may impose retroactive tariffs

The European Commission issued a notice stating that it plans to start customs registration of pure electric vehicles imported from China. According to Reuters, this move is part of the EU's "countervailing investigation" into Chinese electric vehicles. If the final investigation determines that Chinese electric vehicles have received so-called "unfair subsidies," the EU may impose "levy" on these registered imported vehicles. Retrospective Tariffs”.

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