"Recently, all the inquiries are from Broadcom. Unfortunately, there are no orders for those with goods, and no goods for those with orders." A group of friends lamented at the Chip Superman Distribution Training Camp. Some friends also pointed out that "the chip model number BCM89XXX has risen to 30-40 US dollars, an increase of more than 5 times in January."

After experiencing the news of cutting orders for mobile phones and computers in the first half of last year, the chip spot market has plummeted since May and June last year. Broadcom and mainstream chip brands such as TI and ADI have followed the same trend: general-purpose materials (chips) have fallen back to normal prices, and special-purpose materials have dropped to normal prices. Although the price of materials has dropped, it is still higher than the normal price. This year, demand has plummeted and chip prices have plummeted.

Since June this year, inquiries for Broadcom's BCM89 series have begun to increase, with prices for popular chips ranging from several times to more than ten times. Other chips are cutting prices but no orders have been placed yet. Why did Broadcom go up?

Through this article, you will know:

1. Who is rising? Who is descending? Broadcom once again makes "red" history

2. Real demand or false desire? Why has the BCM89 series increased in price?

3. What do you think of Broadcom's price increase?

01 Who is rising? Who is descending?

Broadcom once again makes "red" history

"In May and June, I suddenly found that the inquiries for Broadcom's BCM89 series began to increase. I got a batch of goods for about 20 yuan, but after a while, the price increased more than 10 times, but I had already sold this chip before it took off. "When Xiao Li, the chip purchaser, told us this, he shook his head repeatedly.

After that, Xiao Li discovered that the prices of several chips in the BCM89 series had soared, which made him feel like he was dreaming back to the chip shortage period in the past two years. This scene was particularly conspicuous in the cold market in the first half of the year.

But if you sort through it carefully, you will find that the BCM89 series has been a hot commodity for more than two years, and its price increase is inevitable.

The BCM89 series is Broadcom's automotive Ethernet product, including automotive Ethernet PHY (physical layer), automotive Ethernet switches and automotive Ethernet microcontrollers. Automotive Ethernet is mainly used in smart cockpits and assisted driving parts.

The price trend of a typical BCM89 series chip can also reflect this market situation. The price of a chip with a normal price of around 30 yuan reached its peak in November 2021, and then sharply dropped to 90 yuan in April 2022. It has been under pressure for more than half a year. The weak market conditions have caused the price to drop to between 30 and 40 yuan. At the end of June, some people quoted more than 100 and 300 yuan. The current market price is 300 to 400 yuan (if the channels are good), and some people quoted 8 and 900 yuan.

Overall, the shortage of BCM89 series mainly goes through the following stages:

April 21:

The shortage of BCM89 series can be traced back to 2021. At that time, the automotive core shortage wave was at its most serious stage. Broadcom Automotive Ethernet and PHY chips began to experience shortages. In addition to the BCM89 series, there are also some such as BCM56 and BCM81 series chips. Shortage.

December 21-March 22:

The shortage spread to December 2021, when the delivery time of BCM89 series chips had reached 52 weeks. By March 22, with the reduction in demand and the arrival of goods, the most scarce period of BCM89 has passed. This also corresponds to the general environment of automobile core shortage. Since October 21, the automobile core shortage situation has changed from "everything is lacking" in the first half of the year to "partial shortage".

June 22-April 23:

Broadcom's overall market trend is consistent with that of the entire chip market. The acceptance of high-priced chips is getting lower and lower, and conventional materials are beginning to tend to normal prices. The price of the BCM89 series is relatively strong, but there has been no big splash.

June 23 to present:

Starting from June, inquiries about the BCM89 series began to increase. The prices of BCM89816, 89551, 89530 and other chips began to take off. Inquiries and quotes on the market increased, but the transactions were very low.

Against the background of weak market conditions, the demand for BCM89 series quotations instantly exploded in the market, which has a lot to do with its long delivery time and its difficulty in substituting automotive chips. We sorted out several chips that are highly discussed in the market and found that they have basically increased by several times to more than ten times.

The normal price of BCM89530 is around 150 yuan, but now it has risen to around 680 yuan;

BCM89551 has risen to around 210-280 yuan;

BCM89251 has risen to about 70 yuan.

But not all BCM89 series material numbers are rising again. For example, BCM89251 has no one interested. Moreover, price fluctuations are relatively frequent now, and one word stands out: chaos.

As the group of friends mentioned at the beginning of the article said, there are not many products of the popular BCM89 series chips on the market, and the price of the available products cannot be negotiated. Customers in need are still waiting and watching, and are not moved by the high price, so it is difficult to place an order. . Some people who came to inquire were suffering from the lack of goods, so they went around in circles. It seemed very lively, but in fact there was not much splash.

02 Why has it risen?

Real need or false desire?

Observing the popular BCM89 series material numbers, we can find that they are roughly concentrated in two categories: automotive Ethernet PHY chips and automotive Ethernet switch chips.

Automotive Ethernet PHY chips include BCM89811, BCM89820, and BCM89883, and automotive Ethernet switch chips include BCM89551 and BCM89501.

Traditional in-vehicle networks are mainly based on CAN, supplemented by LIN, but now electric vehicles emphasize intelligence. They have a variety of sensors, cameras, audio-visual interaction in the cockpit, and intelligent driving functions, which have greatly increased the requirements for data transmission. Domain, Cross-domain centralized architecture is gradually becoming mainstream, and Ethernet has a reason to get on board.

Automotive Ethernet has advantages in data transmission, reliability, power consumption, and latency. More importantly, it can reduce connection costs by 80% and cable weight by 30%.

In this regard, Broadcom can be regarded as a pioneer.

The current mainstream automotive Ethernet technology standard is Broad-Reach technology from Broadcom, which has been standardized by IEEE and named 100BASE-T1.

But from the perspective of the entire automotive Ethernet switch and physical layer, Broadcom is not the best one. According to data from Zuosi Auto Research, Marvell has the highest market share, about 50%, and a very high high-end market share, at least 90%. Broadcom has a market share of about 15% and has a complete product line, including high, middle and low-end products. However, it only contacts major manufacturers, so its main customers are BMW and General Motors.

Why did Broadcom, with a market share of 15%, become popular this time?

Based on the market information learned by Xinshixiang, we summarized it into three points: shortage of goods, difficulty in replacement, and amplified demand.

1. Sign a long-term contract with a car company, it is difficult to adjust the goods and the delivery time is long

Many of Broadcom's chips are used in BMW. In fact, the partnership between the two companies can be traced back to 2010, when they jointly proposed automotive Ethernet technology. Broadcom subsequently entered BMW's supply chain in 2012.

This year, BMW's sales have grown by leaps and bounds.

The BMW Group delivered 88,000 electric vehicles in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 117.5%, of which 77,948 were BMW brand pure electric vehicles, accounting for 88%, a year-on-year increase of 150.7%. BMW delivered 44,864 pure electric models in China alone in the first half of the year, a year-on-year surge of 283%, surpassing the delivery volume for the whole of last year.

BMW has sold more, and demand has certainly increased. We also learned from the market that Broadcom has also signed a long-term contract with a certain car company. Nowadays, the delivery time of several popular material numbers is around 50 weeks. The supply of goods on the market is small and it is difficult to adjust the goods, so price increases are inevitable.

2. The leading monopoly is difficult to replace

Ethernet physical layer chips are highly concentrated and are mainly dominated by overseas giants. According to statistics from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, the world's top five automotive Ethernet physical layer chips are Marvell, Broadcom, Realtek, TI, and NXP, accounting for almost the entire market share, as high as 99%.

Among them, Marvell and Broadcom have the most extensive and complete product lines, but Marvell is the most expensive.

A major feature of automotive-grade chips is that they require long-term and stable supply. Which chips to use need to be planned when car companies establish projects. All underlying software codes will be set around these chips, so car companies generally will not easily replace a chip. chip.

From this point of view, the stickiness of automotive chips is relatively strong. Although Broadcom is relatively "arrogant" and only negotiates business with large manufacturers, it cannot stand up to BMW, its financial backer, and its dad is very high-spirited in the business field this year, so Broadcom's demand is temporary. It will be quite difficult to get cold.

3. Demand is amplified and it is difficult to find “suitable” goods.

Is demand for Broadcom so strong? This popularity may be a little "moist".

Xinshixiang learned from the market that this wave of demand for Broadcom is concentrated in foreign orders, and most of them are traders.

As mentioned above, Broadcom's customers are relatively single, and its market share is not high. According to the dismantling of Zuosi Auto Research, domestic car companies such as Changan, Weilai, and BYD use Marvell's Ethernet chips in their vehicles. Foreign Mercedes-Benz also uses Marvell's chips, even Nvidia's ADAS platform. in this way.

This may indicate that Broadcom's demand is not as great as imagined. Judging from the chip spot market, there are not many products to be found, and the prices for those that are available are difficult for customers to accept, and ultimately it is difficult to place orders. However, due to the long delivery time and low supply of Broadcom chips, overseas demand was rapidly amplified after it was introduced into the country. The prices of those that were in stock increased, and those that were out of stock became anxious.

After all, the market has been depressed for a long time, and the slightest disturbance will arouse the soul of the market.

Therefore, the demand is real and the virtual fire is also real.

03 Conclusion

The market has turned from hot to cold in the past two years, but what remains unchanged is the logic of price increases. Wherever there is demand, "roll up" will be opened. Especially when the market is not good now, anyone who does not "roll up" will be passive. That's why With the market price of BCM89 series.

But then I thought about it, how many explosive materials are there in the market that can surge dozens of times? What is the transaction rate? Compared with the virtual fire, everyone's mentality has gradually calmed down. Many friends have reported that they do not plan to touch this material (chip) because the transaction rate is too low.

Obviously, the craze of the market has passed, and everyone seems to be unable to deal with the false prosperity wrapped in demand.

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