Source: Content compiled from Yole

The global automotive LiDAR market is expected to grow from $538 million in 2023 to $3,632 million in 2029, growing at a CAGR of 38% between 2023 and 2029. While in 2022 we are at a crossroads between the PC and LCV market and the self-driving taxi market, in 2023 the PC and LCV market now clearly dominates the market.

The first self-driving taxi services were launched in August 2016 in Singapore by NuTonomy, and took their first steps in 2017 with the entry of Waymo and Cruise, which started operations in Phoenix, Arizona and San Francisco, California, respectively. Since then, we have seen Chinese companies such as Didi, AutoX, and Baidu enter the market. All of these companies have opened new services in cities around the world, putting the LiDAR market for self-driving taxis well ahead of the LiDAR market for passenger cars.

But in 2023 and 2024, after a series of events, Waymo and Cruise have significantly slowed down their activities. This has a direct impact on the self-driving taxi market. This may also affect the long-term market as companies need to regain the trust of the public.

In 2023, the self-driving taxi market is worth $124 million, while the PC and LCV market is worth $414 million. The passenger car market is more than three times larger than the self-driving taxi market and has witnessed a real take-off.

01 RoboSense and Hesai are currently in the clear lead

The automotive LiDAR (PC&LCV and robo-taxi) ecosystem is still quite large with a total of 44 companies monitored. Some are already in mass production, while others have less LiDAR activity or are still in the R&D phase, developing the next generation of LiDAR. In the robo-taxi market, few players are generating significant revenue.

Hesai controls the market with 73% market share, as their LiDAR can be found in most robo-taxi vehicles, such as Cruise, Aurora, Apollo, Didi, Pony.ai, and AutoX. In the PC&LCV market, things are moving fast and have changed again compared to last year.

Since Seyond (formerly Innovusion) only works with Nio, they have been surpassed by RoboSense and Hesai. Seyond is now in third place. In 2023, RoboSense and Hesai dominate the market, as they can be found with nearly 460,000 LiDARs on the road. This accounts for more than 60% of the total LiDAR shipments in 2023.

Hesai and RoboSense are expected to continue to lead the passenger car LiDAR market, occupying the top two positions in 2024. The biggest win for these companies is to win design orders from global OEMs, which will prove the robustness of their technology.

02 Increased production and technological advances have reduced average selling prices

In terms of technology, of the four categories we focus on, only one is expected to remain roughly the same over the next decade. In the other three categories, we can see major developments in imaging technology, emitter types, and the types of photodetectors used. Wavelength is the only factor that remains stable.

By 2024, near-infrared (NIR) wavelengths (905/940nm) are expected to account for 90% of passenger car LiDAR volumes. The split between NIR and short-wave infrared (SWIR) is expected to remain similar over the next decade. In terms of imaging technology, hybrid solid-state LiDAR based on rotating mirrors dominates, expected to account for 66% of volume in 2024, followed by MEMS-based LiDAR at 32%.

The share of rotating mirror-based LiDARs should still be 52% (by volume) over the next decade. The MEMS share is expected to decline to 6%, but the main difference may be the emergence of flash LiDARs, which may account for 37% of shipments over the next decade. This change is related to changes in light emitters and photodetectors. In fact, VCSEL arrays based on multi-junction layers are improving rapidly and combined with SiPM or SPAD, they will be able to provide fully solid-state LiDAR without moving parts. LiDAR manufacturers are now using higher shipments and new technologies to reduce the cost of LiDAR.

By 2023, in China, the price of LiDAR may be less than $500. We are also hearing more and more about FMCW LiDAR, competing with dTOF LiDAR. FMCW LiDAR is only just emerging and manufacturers are currently targeting niche applications such as metrology or defense.

In these applications, price is not a big obstacle for customers. In the automotive field, FMCW LiDAR is not expected to be available until 2027/2028. Supply needs to be established and stabilized, and many challenges related to computing, thermal management or integration need to be solved.

Reference link: https://www.yolegroup.com/product/report/lidar-for-automotive-2024/?utm_source=PR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PR_Automotive_LiDAR_Comprison_YOLEGROUP_Oct2024

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