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After HBM, what is the fight?

2025-03-05

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Advanced packaging technology and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) have driven a surge in global chip demand. On the surface, the semiconductor industry is currently in a fierce competition for the next generation of chip technology.

HBM and Chip-on-wafer Substrate

The shift comes as growth in HBM and chip-on-wafer-on-substrate (CoWoS) technologies begins to slow as issues such as overheating, power consumption and cost challenges become more prominent. Chipmakers and component manufacturers are looking beyond the current Nvidia-TSMC-dominated market and stepping up research and development efforts for next-generation alternatives. Among them, glass substrates are gaining more and more attention as a breakthrough solution.

South Korean semiconductor and component companies such as Samsung Electronics, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, SKC, and LG Innotek are developing glass substrate technology, and equipment manufacturers such as Philoptics, EO Technics, and HB Technology have also entered the glass substrate business. Leading global semiconductor companies such as Intel, AMD, and Broadcom have developed glass substrate development roadmaps and are working to achieve mass production.

Fabless chip developer Nvidia and foundry giant TSMC dominate the global semiconductor market. However, the continued shortage of supply relative to demand has raised concerns about an AI chip bubble. The technical limitations of the Nvidia-TSMC duopoly are also becoming increasingly apparent.

HBM and CoWoS Technology

The advent of HBM and CoWoS technology initially overcame the limitations of Moore's Law, but as the industry enters the HBM3E (fifth generation HBM) era, managing heat and power consumption has become a major challenge, forcing the industry to seek alternatives.

Glass substrates have emerged as a promising solution. Unlike traditional silicon or organic substrates, glass substrates have a lower thermal expansion rate, making them highly resistant to warping at high temperatures. Glass substrates can also transmit up to 10 times more electrical signals in the same area, significantly reducing power consumption. As chip sizes continue to shrink while more computing power is required, glass substrates can provide a way to address potential technology bottlenecks.

Samsung Securities analyst Kim Jong-min said: "If glass substrates become a breakthrough solution that drives new technological innovation, we may see a 'weak revolution' that challenges the Nvidia-TSMC duopoly. Precedents show that challengers can disrupt industry leaders with breakthrough technologies, as seen with smartphones, GPUs, and even HBM."

Earlier predictions that it would take more than a decade for glass substrate technology to take shape and be widely adopted have not been the case, and the development of the technology is advancing rapidly. AMD plans to replace silicon interposers in its high-performance chips with glass substrates by 2028, with prototype production likely to begin as early as next year. Broadcom is already conducting performance tests of integrating glass substrates into its chips. Intel has invested $1 billion in glass substrate development, aiming to achieve mass production by 2030.

South Korean chipmakers, material companies and equipment manufacturers are also stepping up efforts to develop glass substrate technology. Samsung Electronics is building a supply chain dedicated to glass substrates, while SKC plans to produce glass substrates through its subsidiary Absolix. LG Innotek has developed a production roadmap with major subcontractors, and Samsung Electro-Mechanics intends to start in-house production of glass substrates after its production facilities are completed.

Equipment manufacturers are also investing in glass substrates. Philoptics is developing equipment for through-glass vias (TGVs), ABF film attachment and monolithic processes, while GigaVis focuses on advanced inspection equipment. EO Technics provides UV drilling machines for glass substrates, and HB Technology is moving into post-processing repair equipment in the field.

An industry insider said: "If Intel, AMD and other companies successfully apply glass substrates to memory chips, we will see breakthrough innovations in semiconductor packaging and advanced nodes."

Reference link https://www.chosun.com/english/industry-en/2025/02/20/J6XBAFOQKNDG3AUGLI77VUGNE4/

Source: Content compiled from chosun



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