Source: Content from tomshardware

According to analysts at Jon Peddie Research, dedicated GPU sales fell 14.5% in Q3 2024 from Q2. The market decline, breaking with traditional market behavior of sales growth in Q3, is primarily due to consumers waiting for next-generation products from Nvidia and AMD, both of which are likely to be released in January 2025.

Sales of discrete graphics cards, referred to as "AIBs" (add-in boards) in the JPR release, had their worst performance since Q2 2023, which coincided with the end of a year-long downturn. AIB shipments reached 8.1 million units in Q3 2024, driven primarily by 20.1 million desktop CPU shipments.

During the Q3 2024 AIB decline, Nvidia has taken 2% of market share from AMD since Q2, moving from 88%/12% to 90%/10% in three months (Intel is still at 0%). This "slight shift" didn't impact the larger market dynamics, but it's still a sign of Nvidia's dominance in the space.

Desktop CPU and discrete GPU attachment rates also declined year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. Desktop CPU and GPU shipments were 20.1 million/8.1 million, down from 19 million/9 million in Q3 2023 and 14 million/10 million last quarter, respectively, and down 26.9% from Q2. Rising power of integrated graphics solutions and price increases for dedicated GPUs are likely to blame, as well as a general reluctance to buy what are soon to be last-generation graphics cards.

The most concerning part of the JPR study is the forecast for the outlook for discrete GPU sales over the next few years. From 2024 to 2028, the compound annual growth rate for GPU add-in boards is estimated to be -6.0%. This is mainly due to US President-elect Donald Trump's promise to impose high tariffs during his second term, which is expected to increase consumer laptop and electronics prices by 45%.

"We believe that tariffs and mismatched wage growth will cause the U.S. economy to fall into recession over the next two years," said Jon Peddie, director of Jon Peddie Research. "Our long-term compound annual growth rate forecast is not optimistic. Other countries will also feel the impact as consumers reduce spending."

Global PC GPU shipments increased 3.4% month-on-month

Market research firm Jon Peddie Research published a blog post on December 2, reporting that the global PC graphics processor (GPU) market shipments in the third quarter of 2024 will be 73.6 million units, and PC CPU shipments will be 66.5 million units.

The agency predicts that from 2025 to 2028, the compound annual growth rate of GPUs will be -1.9%, and the installed base will reach nearly 3 billion units after the end of the forecast period. In the next four years, the penetration rate of discrete graphics cards (dGPUs) in personal computers will reach 17%.

The report shows that GPU shipments reached 73.6 million in the third quarter of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a month-on-month increase of 3.4%.

Broken down by type, desktop graphics cards fell 5.6% year-on-year, and laptop graphics cards grew 5.9% year-on-year.

Broken down by brand, AMD's total GPU market share increased by 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, Intel's market share increased by 1.1 percentage points, and Nvidia's market share decreased by 1.9 percentage points. The chart is as follows:

PC CPU shipments in the quarter were 66.5 million, up 12% month-on-month and 7.8% year-on-year, with AMD growing 15% and Intel falling 12%.

GPU shipments this quarter were higher than the previous quarter, but 6.2% below the 10-year average.

Dr. Jon Peddie, president of Jon Peddie Research, said:

Overall GPU and CPU shipments surged in the third quarter, with new CPUs released by AMD and Intel, and some pent-up demand being released. However, looking ahead, the PC market will suffer a recession due to price increases and mismatched revenue growth.

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